A dry, warm start to fall this weekend, Maria’s possible tracks

Fall arrives with a breeze

One more day of the breeze effects from Jose is on tap. The peak gusts come around the noon hour and then slowly diminish by nightfall.

The surf will settle down also as Jose weakens and drifts south, but the seas of the Gulf of Maine are likely to contain swells and chop of 4-8 feet through Friday, and then fall to the 3-5′ range for Saturday and Sunday.

Eastern seaboard needs a favor from Jose to keep Maria away

As I was clicking through various model idea maps to come up with different possible scenarios as to what could happen with Maria, this video clip came across my Twitter feed. Stephanie Abrams nailed it, and saved me a lot of work. She explains it all in this video..

For now, most model guidance and ensembles are onto the idea that Jose will hang on long enough to pull Maria to the northeast and out to sea.

While this idea has been steady for the past couple of days, there are many moving parts still to get sorted out.

With the offshore track, it does not mean the region won’t see any effects from the storm (humidity, showers, breeze, surf, rip currents), but the idea of a direct hit is unlikely for Maine at this point.

It is still a bit early to say which way this one is going to go. By Sunday, confidence will increase on the track of Maria.

National Hurricane Center Forecast

South and East Outlook

A freshening sea breeze is likely over the weekend into early next week. As the humidity ticks up, the risk of early morning patchy fog is possible Sunday through Tuesday mornings.

Towards mid-week, a weak trough approaches the region which will add some clouds for Tuesday, and some showers are possible for Wednesday.

By Thursday, a frontal boundary is expected to work through the region around the time Maria is expected somewhere around Cape Cod. How close the storm is to Maine will dictate the outcome of the weather for the rest of the week.

Mountains and North Outlook

Some patchy fog is possible Friday morning. Once that burns off, the weekend start off on the right foot with comfortable temperatures

Saturday is the pick of the weekend for comfortability. A weak disturbance passing through central Quebec may touch off a brief shower over far northern area Sunday. There is a risk for an isolated thunderstorm over the mountains around the international border.

The work week starts off with continued summer warmth for Monday.

Clouds increase on Tuesday as weak trough approaches the region which may cause some shower activity on Wednesday.

The trough will play one of several factors as Maria approaches the region on Thursday. For now, a risk of some sort of shower activity is possible. The extent, amount and duration will become clearer by early next week.

Welcome to fall!

This is a photo I took at Coos Canyon, Byron, Maine from early last October…

This is truly a beautiful time of the year, and the foliage this year should be incredible.

Here is the latest foliage report:

Stay tuned.

-Mike Haggett

For official forecast information: please check in with National Weather Service Gray for Western & Southern Maine and National Weather Service Caribou for Eastern & Northern Maine.

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Special thanks to Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal Weather for their written permission to use their graphics in this post. Use of WeatherTAP images used within their written permitted terms of media use policy. Additional forecast information supplied by the National Weather Service, WeatherBELL Analytics and AccuWeather Professional.

Always Stay Weather Aware!

Mike Haggett

About Mike Haggett

As a Mainer for nearly five decades, Mike understands all too well the ever changing weather forecasts and surprises given the location and geography of the state. Spending much of his time as child outdoors fishing in all four seasons, keeping track of the weather was a must for personal safety. Living firsthand through the impacts of weather through many types of storms and phenomena, the idea came to mind for him to analyze it closer in 2011.