After as much as 40″ of snow fell on the state Monday, southern and central Maine could see another foot or more Wednesday into Thursday.
Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories are posted for all but northern Maine by the National Weather Service. The state appears to be caught in the cross hairs of an inverted trough where a low to the northwest transfers energy to the southeast, and the Gulf of Maine is the epicenter of it.
Unlike most inverted (or Norlun) troughs, this one has a bit more spice to it. As with the latest storm that affected the area, moisture from the southwest played a significant role with it. Add the combination of an upper level low to the northwest and a developing Gulf of Maine surface low, it brings a rather tricky set up to forecast.
Timing of the low developing over the Gulf of Maine and how quickly it intensifies is likely to determine the overall outcome. As with any of these types of inverted trough set ups, forecast bust potential can be rather high. A bust in this case can mean lesser amounts of snow more to the west and south, and higher amounts north and east… location pending on where the low gets organized.
Forecast models have been somewhat consistent with the idea of this storm affecting southern and central Maine with the heaviest amounts of snow over the past two days. The reality is with these kinds of scenarios that the surface low can form further to the north, or south. Given the amount of upper level energy associated and the moisture flow off the water, there is the potential this could increase snowfall totals above and beyond what is currently expected.
A coastal front is likely to make an impact the final outcome of snow totals. The islands around Casco Bay, MidCoast on up through Penobscot Bay / Down East may end up with as much as 6″ of heavy, wet snow from this event. Further inland, drier, colder northeast air may add a fluff factor further away from the coastline. Rain is likely to mix for a period Wednesday afternoon into the evening for the shorelines, and appears to eventually will turn to snow late Wednesday night into the early hours of Thursday morning.
Light precipitation begins for southern and western areas Wednesday morning and overspreads most of the state by mid-afternoon. Southern areas are likely to have evening commute impacts, with 2-5″ of snow on the ground by around 7:00 PM. Precipitation continues heavy at times overnight, then tapers to snow showers Thursday. Northern and eastern Maine may not see the last of the snow showers depart until Thursday night / early Friday morning.
After this… the shovels and plows can take a break for a few days.
-Mike Haggett
For official forecast information: please check in with National Weather Service Gray for Western & Southern Maine and National Weather Service Caribou for Eastern & Northern Maine.
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Special thanks to Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal Weather for their written permission to use their graphics in this post. Use of WeatherTAP images used within their written permitted terms of media use policy. Additional forecast information supplied by the National Weather Service, WeatherBELL Analytics and AccuWeather Professional.
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